It seems that yesterday at market close, KEQU published Q1'25 results in a press release, no 10-Q filed yet.
There is a YOY drop in revenues, income, ebitda. Management says that the main cause is "Site delays in India on multiple projects impacted our ability to ship products and deliver services leading to a slightly down quarter when compared to the prior year first quarter"
-> if true, that could be a temporary issue.
Backlog is increasing YoY and QoQ. I am throwing some initial thoughts, let's see what sticks :)
"The Company’s order backlog was $159.4 million on July 31, 2024, as compared to $140.8 million on July 31, 2023, and $155.6 million on April 30, 2024."
In the recent 10-K there is a comment "we estimate that not less than 88% of our order backlog at April 30, 2024 will be shipped during fiscal year 2025."
So, assuming 90% conversion of April 30, 2023 backlog of 140M = 126M in revenue. They had full year revenues of 203M, so ~75M in revenue not from backlog at April 30, 2023.
Extrapolating the 10-K numbers, 90% of 155.6M = 140M plus whatever revenue during the year not in backlog -> assume 75M as in last FY = 215M => +6% YoY revenue IF the delays in India do not affect backlog conversion/ during the year revenue generation, i.e. IF there is a catchup
That would put the company at 0.6x sales.
I would suspect some drop in shares due to weakening YOY numbers, but if India is indeed temporary _and_ resolves, all good?
Hi
It seems that yesterday at market close, KEQU published Q1'25 results in a press release, no 10-Q filed yet.
There is a YOY drop in revenues, income, ebitda. Management says that the main cause is "Site delays in India on multiple projects impacted our ability to ship products and deliver services leading to a slightly down quarter when compared to the prior year first quarter"
-> if true, that could be a temporary issue.
Backlog is increasing YoY and QoQ. I am throwing some initial thoughts, let's see what sticks :)
"The Company’s order backlog was $159.4 million on July 31, 2024, as compared to $140.8 million on July 31, 2023, and $155.6 million on April 30, 2024."
In the recent 10-K there is a comment "we estimate that not less than 88% of our order backlog at April 30, 2024 will be shipped during fiscal year 2025."
So, assuming 90% conversion of April 30, 2023 backlog of 140M = 126M in revenue. They had full year revenues of 203M, so ~75M in revenue not from backlog at April 30, 2023.
Extrapolating the 10-K numbers, 90% of 155.6M = 140M plus whatever revenue during the year not in backlog -> assume 75M as in last FY = 215M => +6% YoY revenue IF the delays in India do not affect backlog conversion/ during the year revenue generation, i.e. IF there is a catchup
That would put the company at 0.6x sales.
I would suspect some drop in shares due to weakening YOY numbers, but if India is indeed temporary _and_ resolves, all good?
I agree that commentary of the management suggests that it is temporary. But keep also in mind, that they will face now tougher comps.
Thanks!
https://x.com/curiousryanlee/status/1834636248620605578?s=46