Trading at 0.75x NCAV with a clear catalyst in 2025.
Recently a public discussion began (again) in Finland to ban the fur animal farming due to the bird flu that the animals were infected with. I don't know how large percentage of furs Saga sources from its homemarket, but I would consider this as a major political risk.
Here's a list of news that are covering the topic in Finnish. They might be behind a paywall.
What are the reasons Kopenhagen Fur closing shop? Guessing they aren't making money and last couple years have been tough and industry outlook doesn't look encouraging. But would love to hear what you learned on this point. Thanks for the idea!
The financial analysis is well thought out and the expectation of Saga enjoying a near monopoly is correct. The risks are (1) Farmed fur skin sales in units and dollars continue to be weak or decline further, (2) Farmers pelt out due to losses and Saga loses viable producers along with unit volume, (3) Kit loans to value made to farmers represent credit risk. You see, fur auctions have 2 primary income streams. Commissions at auction and Kit Loan (Interest Bearing Receivables from Producers) interest charged to producers-essentially a farmers credit line to grow the mink throughout the cycle, while securing the selling rights at auction. But what happens if the kit loans extend $40 per mink and the auction sells for $30 per mink as has happened to other auction houses? Fur auctions need large volumes at higher unit selling prices to be profitable. It would seem both income streams are at risk.
Thank you for this off the beaten path and intriguing idea.
What’s the trend for fur demand ? If negative how fast is this ice cube melting ?
Also You mentionned production figures in the western world, any data on global production ?
It's a 'cool' company but a total nothing burger investment that is not evidently a clearly a buy.